Growth Slowdown Seen for Third Year in U.S. Dodging a Recession
The U.S. economy looks set to deliver a repeat performance in 2012: for the third straight year, it may suffer a swoon yet not slip into a recession.
"I don't think the slowdown will be any more consequential than the past two years," said John Ryding, a former Federal Reserve researcher who is chief economist at RDQ Economics LLC in New York. "There are positives out there in the economy. We'll avoid a recession."
Last week's employment report has dominated the business, financial, and political news over the weekend. With no action expected from Congress, attention will focus on the Fed. Since Chairman Bernanke will testify before the Congressional Joint Economic Committee on Thursday, we will soon have an update on Fed thinking.
Mark Thoma raises the policy question and provides helpful context.
A Real Failure Friday: Five Banks Fail in Worst Week Since April 2011
Q2 Kicks Off: Why the Stock Rally May Still Have Legs
The S&P 500's 12% gain to start the year gave the index its best first quarter since 1998, and if history is a guide, that may point to a continuing advance for the rest of the 2012 -- provided traders believe the Federal Reserve will keep the money spigot on and the economic data don't signal a collapse.
Interest rates on U.S. bonds may be ridiculously low, but that doesn't mean the country's future interest payments on the national debt will be.
Uncle Sam will shell out more than $5 trillion in interest payments over the next decade, according to the latest projections from the Congressional Budget Office.