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Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of the widely discussed The Black Swan and Fooled By Randomness, is out with a new paper. “The Fourth Quadrant: A Map of the Limits of Statistics”pursues a thesis very familiar to his readers, namely that economistsand finance professionals put society at risk by offering false comfortin the form of statistical models.
Risk Does Not Equal Volatility

Trading Volatility at the Extremes

Posted by condoroptions on September 5th, 2008

Now that the low-volume summer blahs are (probably) over, maybe we’ll see some genuine premium hitting the options boards for the rest of the year, rather than being concentrated only in energy and commodities. So we wondered, would there be any edge in taking directional trades based solely on extreme volatility readings? Or more precisely:

Trading Against Low Volume Rallies

Posted by condoroptions on August 29th, 2008

Much of the talk these days has been about the incredibly low volume across the board. So we wondered: historically, would there be any edge in shorting large rallies that occur on very low volume?

If you really want to get short XLB, and don’t want to pay through the nose (either in terms of theta or vega), a simple put diagonal spread will act a lot kinder to you. For example, you could...

If It Looks Like a Bubble…

Posted by condoroptions on June 26th, 2008

The clamor over whether “speculators” are driving oil’s parabolic run-up has become almost deafening, with the number of Congressional hearings on the subject reaching 40 this week and the price of oil dominating the nightly news.

Tickers:
OIL | TECH
Tags:
, oil, housing, bubble, energy, tech

Avoid Options on Inverse Index ETFs

Posted by condoroptions on June 26th, 2008

Reader S. V. raises an interesting question:

I am working on scenarios to trade the contra-ultra indexes like SDS to take advantage of either a combo spread (selling puts and buying call) or another method to take advantage of price movements while reducing risk. Any thoughts?

Shorting the stock doesn’t seem all that attractive an option here. If Lehman proves that their assurances actually have some merit, the stock could snap right back to the 40-45 level. Instead, we want to take advantage of the monstrous volatility that has been priced into the near-dated options...

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