Tag: investing stockSort
The current price pattern in the S&P, spike in VIX and spike in the long bond set up a short term bullish scenario for the S&P if tomorrow February 19th if the S&P futures open below 770. This pattern has occurred 52 times and 51 of the trades have been wins when using the below entry and exit criteria.
A 30% allocation to the VIX and 70% allocation to the SPY would have only suffered a maximum 14% peak to trough drawdown and grown a $100k account into $1,261,750 which is a 17% annual growth rate. As a comparison a $100k account invested entirely into SPY would have suffered a max 48% drawdown and would only be worth $250 k which is a 5.89% annual growth rate.
A positive January has predicted a positive rest of the year in 36 out of 44 of the occurrences since 1934 for a 81.8% accuracy. When January was an Up month the average return for the balance of the year was +9.6%. As a comparison the return for all periods from Feb – Dec was +6.14% with 54 up and 18 down or a 72% win rate.
These performance metrics show the historical open to close results of buying 1 S&P futures contract based on the trade day of month since 1982. You will probably notice that most of the total net profits occur during the first half of the month. I’m not sure why this phenomena exists, maybe it has something to do with the way people get paid at the end or middle of the calendar month.
The BBC has aired a reality TV series with striking similarity to the story of the original turtles. Eight ordinary people are given a million dollars, a fortnight of intensive training and two months to run their own hedge fund. Can they make a killing? The first episode is available below as 6, 10 minute you tube clips.
The current price pattern in the S&P, spike in VIX and spike in the long bond set up a short term bullish scenario for the S&P if tomorrow January 13th the S&P futures open below todays close 868. This pattern has occurred 36 times and 35 of the trades have been wins when using the below entry and exit criteria.
The market typically underperforms the first 2 years of a term because as much policy as possible gets pushed through. The pre election year or 3rd year in a term has typically been the best performing year as presidents and there parties stimulate the economy and prime the pump to hold onto power.
Historically when congress is in session the stock market has significantly underperformed periods when congress was out of session. More specifically from 1897 to 2000 a $1 investment during periods when congress was in session would have only grown to $2. As a comparison a $1 investment in the stock market would have grown to $216 during periods when congress was in recess