Danger: Market Sentiment Too Bullish in This Sector?
These days we are constantly hearing about currency wars taking place across the globe. Almost every leading country is trying and racing to devalue their currency in order to boost their exports. Just look at the recent action by the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan (Japanese central bank). The Japanese finance minister actually stated they his goal was to get the Nikkei 225 Index up to 13,000 by the end of March. You cannot make this stuff up. Never before has a prominent government figure made such a comment. ...
Well, I was partially right about last week. The market gave us a three day rally but sold off into the weekend. However, my predictions regarding the Euro and the 126 level were dead wrong. Events in Europe are quickly coming to a head and the efforts of European politicians to "kick the can down the road" are coming to an end.
Most of the major indexes finished the week up marginally from the previous week. The notable exceptions were the Russell 2000 which underperformed it's large cap brothers and the Mid Cap index was also down close to 1/2 percent.
It's been two weeks since I posted a full commentary and for all the volatility during that time stocks have managed to stay in a trading range. Everyone was getting excited about Friday's rally and questioning whether it was a turning point for stocks. And while I anticipated Friday's rally any follow thru early next week will largely depend on whether the rumors of a massive Chinese liquidity intervention being announced this weekend are true and whether Mr. Bernanke makes some dovish remarks when he testifies before congress on Tuesday.
We just finished one of the most momentous weeks in the market since Ocotber 2008 when it appeared the global financial system looked like it was becoming unglued. We had a landmark decision by the Supremes on Obamacare and we ended up the week with a delirious market reaction to the EU Summit.
This will be an abbreviated commentary and there will be no commentary next week as I take a much needed rest from the ordinary weekend regimen.
Will the Euro Collapse?
Trading a true currency collapse is a rare opportunity. Most
market participants are familiar with the story of George Soros
and his ride to prominence on the back of the collapse of the
British Pound. Is it possible that a similar opportunity may