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It has been a wild ride for investors in 2011, but when all is said and done, the top performers in terms of sector ETFs this year aren't likely to surprise anyone. Well, one might be a surprise, but the others not so much.

The First Step in Finding a Great Stock

Posted by marketnews on November 8th, 2011

Some stock pickers start with a screen. I start with a concept: Look for the hated!

I search for investment themes that are decidely contrarian. That means that few like the concept, the sector or the stock. The themes must meet several important critera:

Negative sentiment and/or polling
Analyst skepticism
Modest valuations

and most importantly -- hatred.

Nasdaq Composite

$COMPX

Open gap down to 2,537

Consumer Discretionary

XLY

Open gap down to $36.29

Consumer Staples

XLP

Open gap down to $30.01

Energy

XLE

Open gap down to $62.83

Financials

XLF

Open gap down to $11.90

Health Care

XLV

Open gap down to $32.10

Tags:

Today was quit a volatile session before the May jobs report is disclosed tomorrow morning at 8:30. Stocks traded in both directions today significantly. At the end of the day the Nasdaq Composite (QQQQ) led the market today with a mild 0.2% gain while the DJIA (DIA) and S&P 500 (SPY) fell in small order 0.3% and 0.1%, respectively.

Market indices were unsuccessful at staying above their 21-day moving averages today. It now looks like they are headed for a test of their 50-day moving averages. Losses accelerated as today's session wore on.

The stock market had another nice day in terms of price action with the major indexes all posting gains of 1% or higher. Breadth was strong again (not like when the rally began in March 2009-could indicate a late stage bull market) but volume figures are making it difficult to determine if the resumption of the rally is for real or just a head fake.

As we have been suggesting the recent stock market consolidation has been constructive enough that we have reframed from calling it a correction. One reason for our thesis is the Semiconductor Index (SOX) has remained strong and outperformed the broader market during the consolidation phase. Good economic data today propelled stocks significantly higher.

For the third session in a row stocks had a down day. Just like yesterday stock opened weak and had an afternoon rally. Only today stocks materially weakened in late trading and couldn't finish near their highs. As a result, we are lowering the support/resistance levels for the DJIA (DIA), S&P 500 (SPY), and Nasdaq Composite (QQQQ) (see below).

Some late day buying saved the stock market from having heavy declines today. The DJIA (DIA) tested and closed below its 50-day moving average while the broader S&P 500 (SPY) indexes tested but closed above its 50-day moving average.

In a holiday shortened session stocks declined with the market closing early today. The stock market continues to be in a constructive consolidation. We are making minor adjustments to the support/resistance levels on the DJIA (DIA), S&P 500 (SPY), and Nasdaq Composite (QQQQ) (see below).

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