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The Social Security Revolt of 2011

Posted by MissMktr on October 27th, 2010

The Federal Reserve is on a slow march to oblivion. The credibility of the hollow men erodes further with each passing day. The mystery has faded, the magic gone. Only incompetence and ineptitude remain.

Crude oil prices battled their way to a gain for the week as worries about the economy warred with the upward pressure from a weakening dollar.

Traders expecting clarity and stunning announcements coming from today's FOMC meeting were disappointed as the Federal Reserve is intent on maintaining the course it set at the August meeting.

The Trouble With the Bond Bubble

Posted by Justice Litle on August 31st, 2010

Is the much-discussed bond bubble really a "bubble"? Or is it something else entirely, more subtle and harder to define?

The perception of stimulus-driven recovery that has so lifted the Federal Reserve’s reputation has not been purchased without cost… and that cost may prove too much for us to bear.

I thought I was seeing things yesterday.

The Federal Reserve released its weekly numbers on U.S. bank lending. And it looked like there had been some kind of mistake.

Outstanding loans and leases at U.S. commercial banks jumped by a staggering $420 billion in the week ended March 31. An unprecedented leap.

I know we were all told that it was not supposed to happen, but interest rates are rising on both U.S. government debt and mortgages. Fortunately for investors, market forces are not subjugated by media's groupthink.

Something unusual happened the last few weeks.

Bank lending in the U.S. didn't fall significantly.

Since the onset of the financial crisis, outstanding loans at U.S. commercial banks have been in a freefall. Over $600 billion in loans have been repaid or defaulted on. Representing an 8% contraction in credit.

US Bank Loans & Credit Chart

The majority of economic observers seem convinced that the dollar is doomed, and not in some distant future. The basic reason for this unanimity is the reasonableness of the basic thinking, which goes like this:

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