May 17th- 2013- Article by David Banister, Chief Strategist www.themarkettrendforecast.com
I used to half joke with some of my investing friends that the best time to buy stocks is during or right after a crash. Think 1987, 2000-2002, 2008-09, and now perhaps Gold Miners?? Well, before we get too far ahead of ourselves, lets examine evidence of a “Crash”: I like to use crowd behavioral, empirical, and technical evidence in combination.
On April 12th I wrote a blog post titled Precious Metals Melt-Down, and How To Manage It. I talked about how gold, silver and gold mining stocks have been flying under the media radar for over a year and that they were not catching the attention of traders, investors and the public anymore. I also said it would take some sharp price action (breakdown or rally) for it to be front and center again on TV, Radio and Newspapers.
Precious Metals & Miners Making Waves and New Trends
The precious metals sector has been dormant since both gold and silver topped in 2011. But the long term bull market remains intact. As long as we do not have the price of gold close below the lower yellow box on the monthly chart then technical speaking precious metals should continue much higher.
This afternoon, spot gold is surging higher by $27.00 to $1689.00 an ounce. The precious metal took off to the upside after the Ben Bernanke speech this morning which stated that the Federal Reserve would continue with further accommodating policies. Gold is one of the best indicators that inflation is being created.
Nearly every trading session when the U.S. Dollar Index futures (DX-M2) are stronger before the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) they will sell off after the open. Yesterday, and today are perfect examples of this phenomenon. Obviously, we should all know by now that a weaker dollar will ultimately help to inflate the stock markets higher.
Once again, the U.S. Dollar Index futures (DX H2) sold off shortly after the opening bell rang at the New York Stock Exchange. Most traders should know that when the U.S. Dollar declines the major stock and commodity indexes will inflate and trade higher. That is certainly what has happened this afternoon. Earlier today, when the U.S.
The SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEARCA:GLD) and the iShares Silver Trust (NYSEARCA:SLV) are both trading slightly lower this morning. These two precious metals will usually trade inverse to the U.S. Dollar, therefore, traders should follow the dollar closely. Short term traders can watch for intra-day support on the GLD around the $167.00, and $166.00 levels.
Gasoline Nears Six Month Highs, Here Is The Reason
Nearly everyday we hear about the problems in the Middle East with Iran. While there could be conflict with the oil producing nation; it is important to realize that this is not causing gasoline to increase in price. Gasoline has been steadily rising over the past four months and is now trading near a six month high.