Once upon a time (long before Quants, Swaps, and million dollar bonuses) investors knew that they could not know "what the market will do"--- in direction, duration, range, or vacillation. They recognized that neither humans nor human created machines could predict the future with any degree of accuracy. So they learned how to deal with uncertainty.
The key to successful Investment Management is Asset Allocation, the process of dividing the available investment dollars into two, and only two, buckets: Equity and Income Investments. All investment grade securities fit within one of these two classifications, based solely upon the primary purpose for their ownership. There are several key issues involved in successful Asset Allocation
Before Wall Street conned investors into thinking of calendar quarters as "short-term" and single years as "long-term", market cycles were used to test investment strategies. Performance analysis was a test of management style and overall methodology, not a calendar year horse race with one of the popular averages. Bor-ing, yes--- but meaningful.
How is it that, relatively common astronomical events coincide with some of the greatest stock market crashes of all time? The series of events starting in July '09 deserve attention no matter the answer. Elliott Wave-related considerations raising the probability of a stock market collapse are the reason why you might want to look to the sky this summer.
Cycles have been repeating from the beginning of time. The use of our clock is a cycle. There are sixty seconds in a minute, sixty minutes in an hour, two twelve hour cycles or twenty four hours in a day. The ancients used the moon cycle which is a twenty nine day cycle. The four seasons are a cycle of roughly ninety days for each cycle or season.
Unfortunately, investors are a lot like teenagers. They know everything; expect instant gratification; take unnecessary risks; fall in love easily; ignore voices of experience; prefer the easy approach. Lessons of the past just can't apply to what's going on now. Duh, dude!
Today's obsession with short-term blinks of the investment eye is Wall Street's attempt to take the market cycle out of the performance picture. Similarly, total return hocus-pocus places artificial significance on bond market values while it obscures the importance of the income produced. WCM users will have none of it; the investment gods are angry.
This is what passes for analysis these days. The two longest recessions since World War II lasted 16 months (1974, 1982). Since this one started in December 2007, it 'should' bottom around April 2009. But since this recession may be a bit worse than those two, it may bottom a few months after April.
