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Short-term USD JPY May Be Overbought

Posted by Forexhound on March 21st, 2011

The Japanese Yen weakened for a second session against all of the major currencies in a move that many traders suspect is renewed selling pressure from the Group of Seven nations. Following a downward spike on Thursday to 76.37, the G-7 was asked to intervene in an effort to curb the Yen’s appreciation and help support the devastated Japanese economy.

The British Pound is trading higher this morning after it was reported that annual inflation soared to 4.0 percent in January. This rate was the highest level for more than two years. The increase was 0.3 percent higher than December’s 3.7 percent, but lower than analysts’ consensus forecast for a year-on-year rise to 4.2 percent.

The Euro’s closing price reversal top on Wednesday was confirmed overnight, indicating that the market may retrace back to 1.3716 to 1.3681 over the near-term. Technically the main trend remains up unless 1.3570 is taken out; however, a closing price reversal top is often the trigger that begins a change in trend.

The Euro was trading inside of Thursday’s range as traders waited for the release of the U.S. 4Q GDP number. Upon the release of the report, the Euro had a violent, two-directional move before settling near the center of the overnight range.

The GBP USD is under pressure overnight following a strong rise on Wednesday. The reversal of the previous day’s rally is a sign that the action was most likely short-covering rather than new buying. Traders were reacting to the Bank of England minutes which showed a three-way split as to whether the central bank should provide additional stimulus to the economy.

A top-heavy, overbought stock market finally succumbed to selling pressure on Monday, plunging sharply lower. Since September 21 there have been three closing price reversal tops on the December E-mini S&P 500 chart, indicating that investors were selling rallies.

Today marks day 15 of the current rally in the U.S. equity markets and the action the past three days is suggesting that this rally may be running out of steam. The December E-mini S&P chart in particular seems to be indicating that we are still rangebound and that the markets are merely testing the upper boundary of the range.

A better than expected U.S. Weekly Initial Claims Report helped drive up demand for risky assets early in the session but that euphoria ended shortly after stocks opened. Low volume because of a religious holiday may be to blame for the thin trading conditions. Money moved out of gold and T-Bonds on Thursday. This could be a sign of an impending stock market rally.

An emergency easing by the Bank of Japan may have backfired overnight as the Yen erased its early losses against the major currencies. The BoJ made the move in the hopes it would weaken the Japanese Yen, but instead it’s business as usual this morning with the Yen sharply higher versus the U.S. Dollar.

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