We left off Friday with the market selling on fear of Greece leaving the Euro-zone. Everyone seem to be preparing for a Greek exit. If this happens or not is a guess I find hard to make. But I know the effect it is having on the markets. Some food for thought. Technically the Dow made recent highs on May 1st and we are going into the 21st day from that high. We haven't had the bounce and failure that completes a Dow bear market confirmation. But some might just take the break of the recent lows to be a technical signal for a change of trend. And the truth is it's a pretty valid argument, but I and still expecting to see a pretty severe bounce back .What I am mad at myself for is not always following the rules I set forth for myself. Recognizing the turbulent and indecisive times is not hard, I't all over the news and on the charts. Cutting back on size and taking risk off the table is more important then trying to guess on market bounces and bottoms. I am mad because i didn't embrace the downside of the last 2 weeks, But then again it's been 2 weeks only. One of the most important rules I know is to trade with the trend and the trend for me is easily defined by a set of indicators and tools, but it is really easier then that. Just look at the price and direction of the chart. Trade the direction the overall markets are trading and your success rate will go up simple. Trying to find a bottom or think that something is oversold will lead to trouble over the long run. For me it's time to regroup and start hitting singles again. We begin this week were we left off last week, with the fear of the unknown. GREECE will have a continued overhanging effect on the markets until there is some type of resolution. I am stating the obvious because I have seen situations like this play out in the markets..So getting back to Monday. Because of the growing chatter of preparations of a Greek exit on Friday, We watched the markets sell off hard into the close. This leaves open a huge chance for a relief rally early next week. I would expect this to start Sunday night Monday European open remember that's If we get a reprieve from news from Europe this weekend.
