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Something's Fishy in Tripoli

Posted by Oilprice.com on January 25th, 2012

Way back in early 2011, members of the U.N. Security Council had no problem getting a resolution through that authorized military force in Libya ostensibly to protect civilians from attacks by forces loyal to strongman Moammar Gadhafi. The year before, lawmakers on both sides of the Atlantic were bickering over who did what and why in terms of the cancer-stricken Lockerbie bomber.

Libya: The Energy Wildcard

Posted by Oilprice.com on October 24th, 2011

Libyan Colonel Gaddafi’s 42 year brutal reign is over, but the future looks murky ahead for a country primarily known for exporting oil and terrorism.

One thing is for certain – international oil companies will be packing out flights to Tripoli to cut deals for a piece of the action.

On 17 September The Wall Street Journal published a fascinating article on “peak oil,” “There Will Be Oil,” written by Daniel Yergin, chairman of IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates, an energy research and consulting firm and deserved recipient of Pulitzer Prize for his 1991 book, The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money and Power.

While NATO members, led by France, piously proclaimed at the onset of their military offensive in Libya that their concerns were solely humanitarian, a covert tussle to gain a commanding lead in developing the country’s energy riches in light of Colonel Gaddafi’s departure is well underway.

Muammar Gadhaffi’s 42 year-old regime is in its death rattle – maybe today, maybe tomorrow, his administration that has ruled Libya with a quixotic and brutal hand is about to pass, in Trotsky’s piquant phrase, “into the dustbin of history,” prompting the question “what next?”

Crude oil prices rose to 2-1/2 year highs on Monday as worries about supply disruption increased due to deepening unrest in Libya, while Asian stocks declined as concerns about the Middle East also weighed.

If you listen to the TV news man we have nothing to worry about. Saudi Arabia will make up for the Libyan crude oil not making it to the market. Well, we know it's just not that simple. Most European refiners that rely on this sweet light crude coming out of Libya cannot handle the high sulphur content and sour nature of the Saudi crude.

Crude oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last week's low due to unrest in Libya and rising concerns over possible disruption of the flow of crude oil from the Middle East. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

European stock markets have fallen sharply after unrest in Libya and the Middle East sent oil prices to a two-and-a-half year high.The UK's FTSE and France's Cac index lost about 1.5% in early trading, while Germany's Dax was 0.7% lower.

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