Nearly every trading session when the stock market is lower the U.S. Dollar Index is higher. Well, that is certainly the case once again today. This morning, the U.S. Dollar Index futures (DX-M2) are trading higher by 0.38 cents to $79.69 per contract. While 0.38 cents does not sound like much in the U.S. Dollar Index; it can move markets.
The most important chart that anyone can follow is a chart of the U.S. Dollar Index. The major stock indexes and most leading commodities will usually trade inverse to the world's reserve currency. For over ten years now the general stock market direction has moved opposite or inverse to the U.S. Dollar Index.
Once again, the major stock indexes rallied higher after a quick decline in the first hour of the trading session. This same pattern seems to be repeating nearly every trading day since late December 2011. Many traders and investors are now looking for this pattern to occur on a daily basis before the noon hour.
Yesterday, we wrote about the major stock indexes declining in the first half of the trading session only to bounce higher throughout the afternoon. Well, it happened again today. The same exact pattern repeats nearly every trading day since mid-December.
Once again, the major stock indexes have found a low by the noon hour and then floated higher into the afternoon. Nearly everyday we see the same pattern repeat over and over. The trading volume remains extremely light which generally favors the upside in the stock market. Traders must remember the old market adage that states, never short a dull market.
Once again, the inverse relationship between the U.S. Dollar Index and the major stock indexes works. This morning, the U.S. Dollar Index futures started the day higher and then just plummeted before the opening bell. This same pattern played out yesterday and the nearly everyday before that.
Nearly every trading day the major stock indexes will decline before the noon hour. This decline in the major stock market indexes usually leads to a light volume rally that lasts into the close. For example, yesterday the major stock indexes dropped sharply lower at the open only to find a low after the first hour and trade basically unchanged by the closing bell.
Nearly every trading session over the past month the major stock indexes rally after an initial morning decline. Some investors may view this action in the market as a sign of strength, however, the trading volume remains extremely light. Light volume will usually indicate a lack of institutional participation, or conviction by the big boys.
When the stock markets get into serious trouble the Oracle of Omaha will come out of the woodwork to defend stocks. Once again, Warren Buffett just appeared on CNBC live from the New York Stock Exchange. Mr. Buffett said that he is buying stocks and is investing in the United States. The SPDR S&P 500 Index (NYSE:SPY) has climbed sharply off the lows.
