Crude oil remains the most important commodity on the planet. Without it, economic and political life as we know it would cease to function.

Four BIG trends will determine where prices go next:

• China's transition to No. 1 oil importer.
• The death of Hugo Chavez.
• Iran's distribution of Chinese-made weapons.
• New projections for the U.S. gas boom.

1) China's transition to No. 1 oil importer

By George Leong for Investment Contrarians

When oil prices recently fell to below $80.00, I said don’t sell.

Having been relegated to the history books, the Cold War between the West and the East appears to be heating up again. On one side, we have increasing tensions with China; U.S. politicians claim that China is a currency-manipulator and China has massively increased its spending in defense, which is threatening the security in that part of the world. If we look to the Middle East, tensions are now rising with Russia.

According to Iraqi Council of Representatives Oil and Energy Committee member Furat al-Sharei, the 10 oil fields that spread across the Iraqi-Kuwaiti frontier are still waiting to have a line drawn through them to delineate the border, more than eight years after a coalition led by U.S. forces toppled the regime of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein.