The SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEARCA:GLD) and the iShares Silver Trust (NYSEARCA:SLV) are both trading slightly lower this morning. These two precious metals will usually trade inverse to the U.S. Dollar, therefore, traders should follow the dollar closely. Short term traders can watch for intra-day support on the GLD around the $167.00, and $166.00 levels.
Gasoline Nears Six Month Highs, Here Is The Reason
Nearly everyday we hear about the problems in the Middle East with Iran. While there could be conflict with the oil producing nation; it is important to realize that this is not causing gasoline to increase in price. Gasoline has been steadily rising over the past four months and is now trading near a six month high.
The Fed, the S&P 500, & Why Gold Is Shining Bright
Nearly everyday since December the media reports how good things are getting in the economy. This report was better than expected, that report is better than expected and everyone is working again. While the economy might be healing in some way investors must ask themselves why the Federal Reserve is continuing to promote low rates until late 2014.
This afternoon, the Federal Reserve Bank announced that they will keep the fed funds rate at zero to a quarter percent until the end of 2014. This statement by the central bank has caused the U.S. Dollar Index to plummet intra-day. As we all know by now, when the dollar dips the markets flip. Everything in the market has rallied higher.
The U.S. Dollar Index is still the driving force behind every commodity move. This morning, the U.S. Dollar Index futures (DX H2) are trading lower by 0.53 cents to $79.69 per contract. When the U.S. Dollar Index declines it will usually mean that most every commodity will trade higher.
The SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEARCA:GLD) have rallied sharply higher since December 29, 2011 when the highly popular ETF traded as low as $148.27 a share. This morning the GLD is trading lower by 0.67 cents to $159.85 a share. Short term traders can watch for intra-day support around the $159.60, and $159.00 levels. Traders can watch for quick intra-day bounces around these levels.
Market Looks Poised to Reverse Hard to Downside Within Days
The market has been in the process of a near 13 Fibonacci week corrective rally since the October 4th 2011 lows at 1074 on the SP 500. So far the highs reached on the initial rally of 218 points were in October at 1292. That has remained the high water mark as we have consolidated over the last many weeks.
Typically, the week before Christmas, stocks and commodities drift higher due to the lack of participants. Light volume favours higher prices, which is why stocks want to rise going into the holiday season.
The big money players, like hedge fund managers, are finished for the year. They’re sitting on the sidelines enjoying the holiday season while waiting for their year-end bonus checks.
Precious Metals, Equities and Crude Oil Long Term Outlook Part II
The markets are down again today. The selling is not massive but it is the third drop in a row. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) is trading at $121.79, -1.32 (-1.07%). The big driver to the downside today is clearly commodities. Almost every single commodity is dumping sharply. Everything from oil to gold and silver.
Deflationary Pressures Are Everywhere This Morning
When the precious metals decline, there is a very good chance that deflation is taking hold. This morning, both gold and silver are declining sharply lower. The SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEARCA:GLD) are trading lower by $4.49 to $161.96 a share. This is a decline of 2.60 percent for the GLD and this signals deflation in the stock market.
The market collapsed lower today as the new ECB chief Mario Draghi told markets he would not save the day. Expectations had been high for the ECB to come in and buy bonds from Italy and other stressed nations. It was clear in the short term, the ECB will not do this. The markets fell on this news with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping over 100 points on the day.