May 17th- 2013- Article by David Banister, Chief Strategist www.themarkettrendforecast.com
I used to half joke with some of my investing friends that the best time to buy stocks is during or right after a crash. Think 1987, 2000-2002, 2008-09, and now perhaps Gold Miners?? Well, before we get too far ahead of ourselves, lets examine evidence of a “Crash”: I like to use crowd behavioral, empirical, and technical evidence in combination.
On April 12th I wrote a blog post titled Precious Metals Melt-Down, and How To Manage It. I talked about how gold, silver and gold mining stocks have been flying under the media radar for over a year and that they were not catching the attention of traders, investors and the public anymore. I also said it would take some sharp price action (breakdown or rally) for it to be front and center again on TV, Radio and Newspapers.
Gold Miners Continue To Collapse, Near Term Buy Level In Range
Precious Metals & Miners Making Waves and New Trends
The precious metals sector has been dormant since both gold and silver topped in 2011. But the long term bull market remains intact. As long as we do not have the price of gold close below the lower yellow box on the monthly chart then technical speaking precious metals should continue much higher.
George Soros Quantum Fund Investment Portfolio as of Q3/2012
Gold Mining Stocks Continue to Disappoint But Not For Long
It is an endless debate for investors interested in gold. Should they buy a direct play on the gold price, either gold bullion itself or even so-called paper gold with an ETF such as the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEArca: GLD)? Or should they invest into gold equities, particularly the larger, higher quality gold mining companies?
The next couple of days in the stock market could be on the quiet side. You see, the Federal Reserve is holding a two day FOMC meeting on Tuesday, and Wednesday. Many institutional traders are going to be on hold until they hear what the Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke says. As you know, most institutional traders and investors are just dying to hear the words quantitative easing three (QE-3). The likelihood of this happening this time around is very slim.
The Ben Bernanke's comments were just released before he testifies in front of a Joint Economic Committee. It should be noted that gold, silver, and gold mining stocks are declining lower. This tells us all that the Federal Reserve is not looking to implement another quantitative easing program at this time. ...
This morning, after the U.S. Labor Department announced the disappointing non-farm payroll report gold started to surge higher. The catalyst for the rise in gold is the anticipation and speculation of another quantitative easing program by the Federal Reserve. Today, the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:GLD) are trading higher by more than $5.00 from the pre-market low to $155.49 a share.
Divergences Appear: May Signal ECB Stimulus Coming Shortly
The market is showing positive divergences in two major areas. These areas signal stimulus and possible bank recapitalization from the European Union and the ECB. Ultimately, the markets are signaling something big on the horizon that could cause the market to pop sharply in the short run.
Bounce For Profit: Metal Stocks Holding Major Supports
The metal stocks continue to hold key support levels on their daily charts. Stocks like Goldcorp Inc. (USA) (NYSE:GG) and Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) (NYSE:SLW) are into major support as shown in the chart below. These stocks have seen a dramatic decline in recent months as the Dollar has surged and gold and silver have fallen.