Really exciting title, huh? Anyway, several members have asked about this recently, so there are probably more of you out there who are interested.

When you’re constructing an iron condor, it’s nice to be able to just look at the specifics of the trade and have a general notion of the likelihood that it will succeed. We’re defining “success” as having the underlying fall between your short call and short put at or near expiration, which is the best scenario you can hope for. The good news is that there’s a really simple formula that will give you a rough idea of this: