While I’ve been saying the global story is strong, I was looking out 5 years into the future. In the short term (6 months to a year) there is no way the rest of the world will avoid a recession alongside the U.S. despite all the talk about decoupling and the ECB still talking inflation. I’m sidestepping this market, running into the hills, and watching from above until the carnage stops.

I want to discuss how this complex CDO mess finally makes sense to me, and how much further we have to fall. But first, my short rundown of why the world can’t decouple in the short term, even with China, India, Europe, Mid-East, and South America running strong. Just as China has been growing like a weed by being the manufacturer of the world’s goods, selling to everyone, America is the flip side of that being the ultimate consumer.