Analyst pessimism hits XM, Sirius
XM Satellite Radio and Sirius Satellite fell to multiyear lows Thursday after Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Wienkes cut his price target for both companies, and predicted larger losses for each.
Mark said the stock prices are too high because both companies are facing declining cash flows. Young customers are buying fewer satellite radios, he said -- instead they are turning to MP3 players and other technologies, like the latest iPhone. That threatens the prospects of both companies, which are awaiting regulatory approval for their plan to combine.
Wienkes maintained a "Sell" rating on XM stock and a "Conviction Sell" rating on Sirius. He forecast larger losses in 2009 and 2010 for both companies, and cut his price target on XM shares to $6.50 from $11.50. His target for Sirius decreased to $1.75 per share from $2.25.
XM shares dropped $1.54, or 14.8 percent, to $8.82 in morning trading. They fell to a low of $8.55, their lowest price since May 2003. Sirius gave up 31 cents, or 12.8 percent, to $2.11, after bottoming out at $2.09. They last traded at that price in August 2004.
This all comes after FCC Chairman Kevin Martin said on June 16 that he would give a green light to the deal, assuming XM (XMSR) and Sirius (SIRI) make some concessions aimed at ensuring the combination doesn't hurt consumers or thwart competition. "The conditions the FCC is considering applying are not nearly encumbering enough to dissuade the companies from going ahead," says Frederick Moran, an analyst at Stanford Group. "[The conditions] are a small price to pay."
Analysts say those hurdles won't hinder the new company's bid to wring billions of dollars in cost savings by combining. "I don't think that these conditions will" keep them from meeting those targets, says Blair Levin, an analyst at Stifel Nicolaus and a former FCC staffer. Tom Watts, an analyst at Cowen, says he is not revising his estimates of $5 billion in cost savings. The synergies will, instead, depend largely on other variables, such as Sirius-XM's ability to reenergize growth. The new company would also need to renegotiate contracts, due for renewal in 2012 and beyond, that set terms for satellite radios in new car models.
Doesn't sound like anyone cares about that today!
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