13 Predictions for 2008

 

Trader Mark of Fund my Mutual Fund has decided to follow Doug Kass' Annual Predictions on Realmoney.com and come up with his own unconventional predictions for 2008. I have only added excerpts from his 13 predictions, so check out the site for the full scoop.

#1 I have been stating since late in the summer I expected the Fed, in a desperate attempt to mimic Uncle Alan's intervention policies, to cut rates to 3.5% by the Spring despite lip service about inflation. By year end as the financial world contracts, and despite raging inflation in things that affect Americans, the Fed cuts rate to 2.75%.

#2 Now that 2007 bonuses are secure, financial CEO's start laying the axe down and over 100,000 financial jobs are lost in Q1 2008. Workers are outraged, but CEOs say "well that's how it works" - we get the reward from our dumb decisions, you get the pain.

#3 Food inflation ramps worldwide causing serious issues and front page news in countries across the world. The US central bank says, really who cares, after all its not part of core inflation. Somewhere a defeated Ron Paul exhales loudly and exclaims "If they only had listened to me."

#4 Political Scenario A: Not 1, but 2 independent candidates emerge to make an unprecedented 4 horse run to the White House. Ron Paul, after winning every online poll every devised, decides the public swell is too great and he must out of principle run after the Republican party refuses to acknowledge there is a person in their party with the name Ron Paul.

#5 Political Scenario B: In a stunning comeback, John McCain finishes a respectable 3rd in Iowa, and moves on to win New Hampshire. McCain, not Romney or Guliani, emerges as the anti-Huckabee candidate. A series of primary battles between "experience" and "religion conservatism" break out, with the experience of McCain winning over enough Republicans; especially after the machine that is the Clintons wins the Democrats despite a great run by Obama.

#6 A major hurricane hits the southern US, spiking crude oil prices to $125 and gas to near $4, in the middle of an economic slowdown. Natural gas prices temporarily spike, hurting profits for corporations for 1 quarter but quickly fall right back as a slowing US economy continues to put a cap on pricing.

#7 After over 2.5 years of not suffering a down 2% day dating through early 2007, volatility in the stock market takes over as the theme of the year, 2% daily increases and drops become a weekly occurrence. The market suffers its first 20% drop (from Oct 9, 2007 peak) in the first half of 2007 as consensus emerges that "a major slowdown" (which dared not be called a recession due to elections coming), is happening.

#8 Google is finally hit by an earnings miss by Q3 2008. It won't be a major miss, but enough to rock psychology. Advertising slowdown, led by US recession... err not a recession but a "slowdown" (its a political year folks), finally hits Google, despite secular growth.

#9 Not 1, not 2, but 3 of the top 12 homebuilders file for bankruptcy after the spring and summer of 2008 see no serious rebound in the real estate market. Bankers, finally seeing the light, stop extending life support to these homebuilders who just continue to build homes no one needs, to create cash flow.

#10 After writing off every kitchen sink in America, the 5 major investment banks, after a poor first half of 2008, stage a massive rally in fall 2008, proving once again the black box rules the world. Goldman Sachs attributes its weak first half of 2008 to "we were too busy in strategy sessions figuring out how many government posts should be filled with ex Goldman executives in the next administration, so our core business of milking the financial system for all it's worth and transferring wealth from middle class to upper class suffered.

#11 Apple continues its run to become the largest market cap stock in the USA, tacking on another 50% to finish at $300 by end of 2008. Steve Jobs puts his pinkie to his lips and cackles like Dr. Evil as he quickly positions Apple to be THE consumer electronic convergence BRAND of our lifetime. Macs quickly approach 10% market share, and consumers in foreign countries flee to Apple as a consumer cult brand like a Nike or Adidas.

#12 China has a raging success in its Olympics, although everyone notices no cars are allowed to drive during the 2 weeks (smog and all). Meanwhile the decoupling effect is proven to be yet another farce by CNBC pundits, and major foreign markets, following the lead of the US market fall in tandem.

#13 Sports: The Indianapolis Colts travel to Boston for the AFC championship game, and in a stunning victory beat the Patriots 35-34 as ....

I guess we will have to wait and see. Some pretty wild predictions!

Go Google Go!

Go Google Go!

I don't know. I think Google

I don't know. I think Google has experienced some incredible growth, but it can't keep growing forever. I am not sure when, but I do think we are going to see a huge fall back when Google misses earnings. 2008 could be the year. I can also see #2 happening. Is Trader Mark a fortune teller?

I don't know about Number

I don't know about Number 8....I think Google continues to soar. I agree with Number 13....Colts all the way!