Technical Signals

This one’s going to be quick and dirty.

Since I’ve already posted numerous monthly charts for both indexes here and on twitter, let’s not waste our breath: they’re bullish - and it will take a lot of damage to change that on the long-term time frames.

So let’s get to it:

[COMPQ daily chart]

Well even though we are in a range for the last 2 weeks there are plenty of opportunities for day traders to make money. Also the range gives us well defined entries for a trend trade based on a breakout or breakdown.

Well I shot a ETF in 60, which was going to be my video debut at FINZ.tv but due to technical difficulties we were not able to get it produced in time for today’s open. That’s ok it was a lot of fun and bloopers galore but my videos are coming soon to a computer near you.

By all accounts, the rally off the recent March low has been historic. Will we continue to move up without a significant pullback? Will we have a healthy light volume pullback? Or will we reverse completely? I look to the charts for perspective and help determining the possibilities – but not for answers to these questions.

Today's Market Commentary Wednesday May 6, 2009

Well we are still in this range, Wave 2 on the DJIA and SP500. The QQQQ have been the strongest of the 3 putting in a new high of the year yesterday at 34.06. I posted that 34 was resistance for the QQQQ yesterday. I still feel the same way about the markets. The probabilities of taking out April lows increases with the indices closing below their respective daily 20sma’s and 60min 50sma’s.

As far as the markets are concerned we have a nice gap down opening this am on the heels of the swine flu epidemic news. Whatever the reason it does not matter to us our job is to trade the tape and take the best trade opportunities that are presented.

Well I came into yesterday expecting a pullback in the markets. I posted in our chat early am yesterday that the hourly supports for the DJIA were at 7900 and then 7775. The 7900 level was tested and held.

The DJIA daily Snap Back Up started 2 days ago and continued yesterday taking out the Wave 1 highs and hitting our

upside targets with a new high qualifying as a Wave 3. Now what, well we deal in probabilities and not predictions.

For this rally to continue the DJIA has to get above the weekly 20sma at 8061.11. Any upside targets for today are a

Well we were on the money again yesterday. We took out Monday's highs in the first 30 minutes but we did not do it with conviction. It is now important for the markets to continue this rally to hold their respective daily 50sma's.

Well yesterday opened up to a fantastic morning rally in the futures markets that was very strong all day long. Yesterday was one of the 5 largest up days in stock market history. The DJIA blew thru the 50day sma. The McClellan Oscillator closed in overbought levels yesterday at 262.83.

I love when I hear people say that the ‘technicals’ aren’t working in the market. While most now understand ‘A-B-C-’ Technical Analysis, it takes an experienced trader to understand the subtle nuances that can’t be seen on a chart. Don’t get too excited…I’m not revealing any of those secrets just yet.

Ok, so hopefully we saved you some money with yesterday's post, and you didn't become one of the many trapped bulls today. Each day without a rally the calls for a pop will grow, but we must stay focused on the action in the charts.

I did something today that I haven't done in months. I spent a few hours running through the lists of my individual names from TCNET using the dailies. The result was expected: tons of charts extended to the downside yielding poor risk/reward for entry. Away from the charts, however, it seems traders are really anxious to catch a bounce.

Today’s Market Commentary Thursday March 5, 2008
My upside target for yesterday’s rally was 6900 and if you take into account the overnight markets the full rally was 368 points.
“Thirty minutes and -150 points saw the bears whack 1/2 of the daily gains.