market timing

Commodities and stocks have been on fire the past two weeks and I think it just may be time for things to take a breather. While I continue to stay long, taking some money off the table to lock in profits is a safe play.

How to market time gold and natural gas using multiple time frames and leading indicators. My simple yet effective trading overview.

A Tale of Two Market Calls

The following discussion took place in the Hamzei Analytics High Frequency Trading chatroom on September 23, 2009. Names in this transcript has been changed for privacy purposes.

AFTERNOON DISCUSSION: Post FOMC Announcement a possible shortterm top in the ESZ9 Futures contract.

Today we're going to be looking at the S&P 500 market. We last reviewed this market back on May 12th when it was trading at 908. Here we are two weeks later and the market is at 914.

With the recent movements in the markets making many question whether we’re moving up or down, market timing comes into question. A few weeks ago, our Chairman and Investment Director Alexander Green penned an article on market timing for Oxford Club subscribers…

At the Investment U Conference in St. Petersburg, FL a few weeks ago, my good friend and colleague Mark Skousen called me out.

Once a bear market cycle ends, a large portion of the returns in the next bull market occur early in the new bull market cycle.

Not too surprisingly, mutual fund investors tend to ramp up their fund purchases at the top of the stock market cycle. The chart in this post shows the one year forward return along with the current period mutual fund flows.

Today's sharp move higher in the stock market sheds light on the dangers of an investor trying to time the market. The market research firm DALBAR looked at the returns of mutual fund investors over the 20-year period, 1986-2006, and reported the average market timer return was -2%. During this same time period, the S&P 500 Index returned 12%.

A morning gap occurs whenever there is a difference in price between the previous day’s close and the open in the morning. Theoretically, there are really two of these types of conditions that occur. A true gap is where the open is above or below the previous day’s high or low respectively.

Consider the latest readings of the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of several dozen short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest.

With all of the talk of the new Bear market, shouldn't keep you from making money on the long side. With every Bull market, there are bearish moves and with every Bear market, there are Bullish moves. Trading the counter trend can be very profitable.