market

This may be a key turnover day for all markets. Specifically, the EURO, DOW, and CRUDE are now registering "NO CONFIDENCE" on the previous DOWNTREND signal and really only has to hold in this range to turn the signals. Price to look out for on the EURO is 1.2745 and the DOW is 10149.71.

Employment worries help trigger a sharp sell-off in U.S. equity markets on Monday, leading to speculation that the month will end with another weak day on Tuesday. The problem with the market this week is Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls Report. The market is looking for a decline of 106K to 120K and a jobless rate of 9.6%.

December Gold soared to the upside on Thursday following a sharp break in U.S. equity markets. Traders increased their long hedges in gold on the stock market weakness. As mentioned several times the past few weeks, gold (hard asset) and stocks (paper) are competing for the same investment Dollar. Gold has had a tendency to rally lately following sell-offs in the stock market.

Stocks traded sharply higher on Tuesday, driven by both technical and fundamental factors. A combination of friendly events fueled today’s rally which began overnight after European and Asian traders set out to satisfy their appetites for risk by supporting equities. All three major stock indices backed off their highs after reaching key short-term retracement levels.

The two-day pause in the break in the equity markets made me search for some missing factor which may be lurking in the charts. At this time, the break taking place from the 1127.75 level in the September E-mini S&P 500 appears to be a normal 50 – 62% correction of the 1002.75 to 1127.75 range.

MasterCard Incorporated (NYSE:MA) is flat on the day after continuing to trade in a range between $215.00 and $195.00. The stock has been stuck in this range for well over a month now. It is trading just under the $215.00....

If overnight trading action is any indication then look for U.S. equity markets to open lower. The lack of buying interest overnight is most likely a reflection of short-term overbought trading conditions and the lack of fresh economic news. The Dollar is still under pressure against the Euro and British Pound, but equity traders are a little disconnected from this move this morning.

Treasury futures rallied in flight-to-safety buying as yields in the 30-Year Bonds and 10-Year Notes plunged. Expectations are the Fed is likely to keep interest rates down for a prolonged period of time. Despite the early recovery in the equity markets, the Treasurys held their ground, suggesting that there is real concern about the condition of the economy.

Investors worried about the weakening U.S. economy and a positive response to European earnings reports are pressuring the Dollar this morning leading to a strong recovery in the equity markets after a sell-off on Wednesday threatened the structure of the current rally. U.S.

Now that the distraction of the European bank stress tests is out of the way, traders turned their focus on second-quarter earnings. Overnight stocks wavered with no clear trend. Some traders expect momentum to take over and drive this market higher from the start.

U.S. stock futures are up this morning and poised to challenge the recent tops, driven by demand for higher yields and better than expected earnings reports. Stocks received a boost for the second consecutive night after Europe reported favorable economic news.

Overnight stock futures are showing slight gains. Selling in Asia and a 4.2% drop in Google stock is likely capping the market in the pre-market. News that Goldman Sachs reached a $550,000 settlement with the SEC has had very little impact on the market. Trading has also been light ahead of the release of earnings data from Citigroup, General Electric and Bank of America.

Once upon a time (long before Quants, Swaps, and million dollar bonuses) investors knew that they could not know "what the market will do"--- in direction, duration, range, or vacillation. They recognized that neither humans nor human created machines could predict the future with any degree of accuracy. So they learned how to deal with uncertainty.