Forex

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The U.S. Dollar is trading higher this morning against most major currencies except the Japanese Yen as traders have turned against risk and are seeking shelter in lower yielding assets. The overnight strength in the Dollar is being attributed to heavy selling pressure on the Euro and British Pound.

U.S. stock indices are trading better this morning ahead of the U.S. session. Although they are off their highs, there seems to be enough demand for higher risk despite the strengthening Dollar and the falling Euro and British Pound.

In a nutshell: Why I think the US Dollar will drop soon.

The trading week ended with traders still fearing a widening and deepening debt situation in the Euro Region. Optimistic traders are looking for some solution to be reached by either a “pseudo-bailout” by the European Central Bank or European Union. Legally, the ECB or EU cannot offer an outright bailout package so they may have to figure out a way to get around this restriction.

The markets have tumbled over the last two weeks giving a sour start to 2010. Many point to the fall as being a result of President Obama's tough talk on bank regulation, not allowing them to take risks that have been the key driver of profits. The Financial Select Sector SPDR (ETF) (NYSE:XLF) has tumbled in the last two weeks over 7%. Stocks like Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.

The U.S. Dollar is slightly better against a basket of currencies this morning after trading in a tight and narrow range overnight. Trading action was subdued as investors await this morning’s key U.S. GDP data. The Dollar is trading higher versus the Euro, Yen and Aussie Dollar while weakening against the British Pound, Swiss Franc, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars.

Stock market futures soared last night when the President of the United States was giving his 'State of the Union' address around 9:00 pm EST. Please note that the U.S. Dollar index also began to decline at that very time. Once the dollar began to bounce the futures began to pull back in it's overnight gains. The weak dollar is very important for this market if it is to rally.

Technically the MKT has produced a major positive signal. On the SELL side REVERSAL strategies can be executed at UP, +c and UT3 following an exhaustive signal. UP FADE strategies have potential after the 3rd press into an area but retaining the integrity of the inflection point. Consider rolling long on any stops with this strategy.

The EUR USD is trading flat as Forex traders await this month’s European Central Bank policy decision. Investors are looking for the ECB to leave interest rates at the historically low 1% level. At the same time, the market will be looking for comments on the debt problems in Greece, Portugal and Spain. Expect the language of the report to be dovish in tone.

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