The market did not do much of anything today as we all bide time ahead of the release of Q1 GDP and the FOMC interest rate decision. About the only market moving news today was the talk of V and MA earnings. Both of those stocks produced excellent action today in their respective security, with MA now giving me a 450% return in a little under two years.

Right after the JPMorgan / Bear Stearns deal, the Fed has cut the discount rate, the rate it lends to banks normally overnight, from 3.5% to 3.25%, now bringing it within 25 basis points of the funds rate, currently at 3%. Remember that the FOMC meets this Tuesday as well with the markets potentially pricing in a cut from 50 basis points to up to 75 basis points.

Some folks say we’re in a recession. Others say we’ve hit the bottom. The truth of the matter is that no one has any concrete idea about what’s going on. But I can only guess as to what’s going to happen, at least short term.

Quick tutorial on how to interpret the CBOT's Fed Funds 30 Day Futures price.