commodity trading

Commodities and stocks almost look ready for a rally or at least a relief bounce. The market is down over 5% and the normal pullback this year has been 4%. Using technical analysis and inter-market analysis we can see that the market is reaching extreme lows and this usually means we are only a couple days away from a rally.

Wealth building is one issue…and is hard to accomplish.
Wealth preservation in todays economy is probably much harder to accomplish.

How many Stock market Bears are itching to go short the stock market index? Probably too many to count. However regardless of all the fundamental reasons and thoughts to blindly go short the stock market index, this is not prudent.

In some of my earlier posts I spoke about Tactical trading in Commodity futures. I want to provide you an example that is occurring right now in commodity futures trading. This is not from one of those web sites with commodity tips. This is real trading in a commodity market with a real commodity trade.

It has been a negative period for the US dollar in the Forex Markets. When we are trend following we really do not look at the fundamental back drop ,but it seems evident. Look at it this way… with all the debt taken on and more spending by Govt, it doesn’t make sense? If we personally ran our households this way, we would not be living in our households.

For any of those contemplating investing in the commodity markets, they need to be very aware that losses are part of the game. As Ed Seykota has taught so many commodity and forex traders… losses are like breathing. They can not be avoided. If you are not having losses..either you are not trading.. or you are risking way too little. There is no way around it!

One of the biggest reasons investors fail in commodity trading or forex trading is unrealistic expectations. In conjunction to unrealistic expectations… too many lack my holy grail of Discipline and Patience.

After being in the field since 1994 and working with many investors and traders it has become very clear to me what is the HOLY GRAIL in the Commodity Markets & Forex Markets. The whole basis of trading with CNBC, Bloomberg and others is based on trying to have an edge of information or finding some magic system or trading signals

I seem to have this discussion quit often. In order to achieve success in the commodity markets or forex markets does one need to have a higher level of intelligence than most. Past experience has proven this not to be the case. Example after example both public as well as in our brokerage have proven this to me.

There are many that do not understand that commodity trading and forex trading are a zero sum game. In other words in order for one forex or commodity trader to benefit ( make money) another trader loses money. It is very clear to me after all these years of commodity trading.

There are many novice traders in commodity trading & forex trading that feel they need to have accuracy higher than 70% or even 80%. This is absolutely inaccurate. These are the same inexperienced traders that believe that they can have an automated forex holy grail system.

For those who are seeking success in the Forex Market, there is really only one proven concept. That is trend following. Trend Following works in every asset class over time ( with strong discipline and patience) such as commodity trading, futures trading, stock trading and forex market. The basic premise there is a break down or break out and the trader enters his/ her position.

The statement…”Millions of dollars of profit for trend followers and commodity traders” are not a figment of my imagination. In Alpha Magazine in March of 2009 they listed the top 25 earners for 2008. The fact the top 25 are involved in futures trading and more so…trend following
Quoting Alpha Magazine.

The days of long lock ups on hedge funds might be changing. There seems to be a growing trend of investors seeking more liquid and more transparent strategies. Can these investors be blamed?

A question I encounter often is, what are the correlations between your trading and other commodity trading advisors. More so…what makes you different.. Both are great questions..First in my opinion out of the thousands of commodity trading advisors, I would only consider diversified trend followers. This cuts out the options strategies that I have seen too often blow up.