December Treasury Bonds posted the rare daily/weekly closing price reversal top this week. On Wednesday, the T-Bonds formed a daily closing price reversal top and on Friday, the market sold off far enough to form a weekly closing price reversal top. Both of these chart patterns suggest that the selling is greater than the buying at current levels.
On Wednesday the T-Bonds topped at the same time the equity markets bottomed shortly after the release of bearish U.S. new home sales. The simultaneous move in these markets had the appearance of an asset allocation shift. Either someone guessed right about Bernanke’s speech or they were tipped off.
On Friday, Fed Chairman Bernanke sounded a little more upbeat about the economy, triggering a strong rally in the equity markets and a hard, profit-taking break in the T-Bonds. Based on the chart patterns, these moves should continue next week. Although it is a technically a “holiday week” what better time to drive equities higher and Treasury instruments lower than during an historically low volume week.