The U.S. equity markets experienced high levels of volatility this week. At times it looked like the Bears were ready to crush them, only to be met by the “Never say die” Bulls. The continuing strength in the Dollar keeps putting pressure on stocks as traders reverse the carry trade. The pressure has not been enough to trigger the slew of stop loss orders that seem to be well-placed below the current trading zone. A bearish pattern will become clearer if these markets can form a secondary lower top. The markets are likely to turn sharply lower once a key main bottom is taken out on the weekly chart. At this time, there are no indications that this market is ready to turn down yet. There are indications of a short-term top, but nothing that indicates a change in trend to down is imminent.
The primary driver for this week’s weak trade in the equity markets has been aversion to risky assets due to credit concerns in the Euro Zone. Traders should monitor new develops to see if this crisis is spreading to our shores.
Treasury futures traded mixed this week before closing higher. The Fed announcement on Wednesday regarding its plan to begin removing stimulus measures put in a bottom as it became a “sell the rumor, buy the fact” situation. Oversold conditions may trigger a short-covering rally next week, but the long-term charts still indicate lower markets to follow.